March 16, 2017

PLENARY LECTURES

The 2017 SISC Annual Conference will open with these Plenary Lectures:

ECMWF 2016-2025 strategy: moving towards seamless ensembles 

Abstract:
The last decades have seen major advances in the prediction of large-scale phenomena also thanks to the use of ensembles based on coupled land, ocean and atmosphere models. Today, ECMWF uses coupled land, ocean and atmosphere models to generate medium-range and sub-seasonal forecasts, and in data assimilation to improve the estimation of past climate variability. In the next 10 years, ECMWF plans to further improve and exploit coupled models to initialize and extract predictable signals from its ensembles. In this talk, I will describe the operational suites used at ECMWF, present our prototype coupled assimilation system, and show some preliminary results from the ECMWF coupled reanalysis of the 20th century. I will then discuss ECMWF plans to move towards seamless ensembles based on more complete Earth-system models and assimilation systems.

Affiliation: European Commission, Directorate General for Research and Innovation,

Affiliation: Università di Siena, Dipartimento di Studi Aziendali e Giuridici